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Surprising takeaway leader


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#1 RavenCp

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Posted 21 July 2011 - 09:37 AM

http://tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=372128

yesterday I have read this article and to my surprise discovered that our takeaway leader is Mathieu Perreault who takes 7th position is the league. Another two leaders who came in first 25 kist are Semin (18) and Backstrom (20). I know MP85 game somehow faded with more games played. Takeaway is very importent element of the game, also it is a bit tricky, 4th center plays against others 4th liners, but still it is good for MP85 to be in this position.

#2 sly0824

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Posted 21 July 2011 - 09:48 AM

http://tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=372128

yesterday I have read this article and to my surprise discovered that our takeaway leader is Mathieu Perreault who takes 7th position is the league. Another two leaders who came in first 25 kist are Semin (18) and Backstrom (20). I know MP85 game somehow faded with more games played. Takeaway is very importent element of the game, also it is a bit tricky, 4th center plays against others 4th liners, but still it is good for MP85 to be in this position.


The story is misleading, as it is wasn't total takeaways, but even strength takeaways per 60 minutes. Any time you have an extrapolation based on a small sample, it is going to look better. For example, who is the better batter: a .310 hitter with 89 rbi's in 100 games, or a .375 hitter with 1 rbi is 2 games?
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#3 skaddiction88

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Posted 21 July 2011 - 09:49 AM

why are NY Islanders defensemen so good at takeways...

#4 RavenCp

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Posted 21 July 2011 - 09:59 AM

The story is misleading, as it is wasn't total takeaways, but even strength takeaways per 60 minutes. Any time you have an extrapolation based on a small sample, it is going to look better. For example, who is the better batter: a .310 hitter with 89 rbi's in 100 games, or a .375 hitter with 1 rbi is 2 games?


I agree with your point, but still he played a considerable number of games. BTW, for goalies some % saves leaders really played 1 or 2 games.

#5 RavenCp

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Posted 21 July 2011 - 10:02 AM

why are NY Islanders defensemen so good at takeways...

Yes I also noticed it, NYI looks good in this department, no our defensemen in the list.

#6 sly0824

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Posted 21 July 2011 - 10:15 AM

I agree with your point, but still he played a considerable number of games. BTW, for goalies some % saves leaders really played 1 or 2 games.


Perreault played in 35 games, but only averaged 11:52 of ice time. Not exactly a large sample size when the article is extrapolating to 60 minutes.
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#7 siggy25

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Posted 21 July 2011 - 10:50 AM

why are NY Islanders defensemen so good at takeways...


Because the other team always has the puck.

#8 Traffic_cone

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Posted 21 July 2011 - 12:50 PM

The story is misleading, as it is wasn't total takeaways, but even strength takeaways per 60 minutes. Any time you have an extrapolation based on a small sample, it is going to look better. For example, who is the better batter: a .310 hitter with 89 rbi's in 100 games, or a .375 hitter with 1 rbi is 2 games?

Actually, a small sample is just as likely to be in error in either direction. That's one of the reasons a best of seven series doesn't always follow the statistically predicted outcome.

But more to the point, my impression from watching Perreault is that forechecking is the strongest part of his game, and his takeaway statistic reinforces that impression. I'm inclined to think it will be confirmed if/when the sample size is bigger.

#9 RavenCp

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Posted 21 July 2011 - 12:52 PM

Because the other team always has the puck.

Funny!:)

#10 RavenCp

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Posted 21 July 2011 - 01:05 PM

Interesting distribution. That most of takeaway leaders are C (I guess it suppose to be), but there also 5 RW, and 2 LW. Is it typical RW more than LW?

#11 Traffic_cone

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Posted 21 July 2011 - 01:20 PM

Interesting distribution. That most of takeaway leaders are C (I guess it suppose to be), but there also 5 RW, and 2 LW. Is it typical RW more than LW?

With a sample size of only 7, the numbers for the right and left wings are not significantly different. That is, it is no more surprising than it would be to toss a coin 7 times and have it come up one way five times and the other way twice.

#12 sly0824

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Posted 21 July 2011 - 01:43 PM

Actually, a small sample is just as likely to be in error in either direction. That's one of the reasons a best of seven series doesn't always follow the statistically predicted outcome.


A small sample size can be misleading, especially when extrapolation is concerned. My previous baseball example showed how a small sample size could show something that isn't necessarily true. An extrapolated hockey example is how if player A scored a goal in two games then was sent to the minors, then player A would be a 41 goal scorer if he played every game. That is not necessarily correct, but that is almost exactly how extrapolations like this work.

MattyP only played in 35 games last year, and averaged only 11:52 in those games. While he did have a respectable 21 even strength takeaways in that limited ice time, it is deceptive to extrapolate that.

But more to the point, my impression from watching Perreault is that forechecking is the strongest part of his game, and his takeaway statistic reinforces that impression.



Perreault was a little ball of energy. But only for limited periods of time. It seems like every one of his call-ups, for the first three or four games, he was everywhere. But, that never lasted, and his play tailed off significantly after those first few games. If he is to succeed at the NHL level, he has to harness that initial output and use it constantly, as he just isn't naturally good enough, or big enough, to not be a spark plug.

I'm inclined to think it will be confirmed if/when the sample size is bigger.



I doubt that. While Perreault has been an effective player, so far, in short stretches, the longer he plays, the less impressive his results became. But, even if he does find a consistant level of play, his defensive abilities aren't that impressive, and those take aways are almost guaranteed to drop.
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"If you want money, go to the bank. If you want bread, go to the bakery. If you want goals, go to the net." - Brooks Laich

#13 Traffic_cone

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Posted 21 July 2011 - 02:23 PM

A small sample size can be misleading, especially when extrapolation is concerned. My previous baseball example showed how a small sample size could show something that isn't necessarily true. An extrapolated hockey example is how if player A scored a goal in two games then was sent to the minors, then player A would be a 41 goal scorer if he played every game. That is not necessarily correct, but that is almost exactly how extrapolations like this work.

I agree that small sample sizes aren't reliable bases from which to draw conclusions, was only pointing out that they are unreliable in both directions. A hockey player who plays two games and scores one goal isn't proven to be a 41 goal scorer, nor is a player who plays one game and doesn't score a goal proven to be unable to score goals in the NHL.

I share your reservations about Perreault being able to make it big, but I'm not ready to discard the notion that he may be able to harness that initial output and use it constantly. Maybe he can, maybe not. We'll see.

#14 Bmore_Bruiser

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 02:16 AM

MP85 sounds like a gun and is one, hope he gets more ice time this season
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#15 FireRunner

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Posted 24 July 2011 - 09:38 AM

MP85 is fun to watch. I call him Scrappy at the games because he's always moving around trying to get the puck and making a play. As others have stated he plays well every time he's called up, but after each passing game his production fades. This may be due to his excitement level lowering after being called up for a period of time. Who knows. He is one of my favorite players and I love seeing him score, much like the rest of Verizon Center.

But, he's small and that's one reason BB doesn't like him. He needs to be more aggressive with his body and perhaps he will with time and the weight room.



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